TAIPEI, Taiwan — A cacophonous sea of tens of thousands of people, dressed in red and waving flags, chanted and blasted air horns here in Taiwan’s capital.
台湾台北——数万名民众嘈杂地聚集在这个位于台湾首都的地方,身穿红色服装,挥舞着旗帜,高呼着口号,吹着汽笛。
After waiting for hours through rain and seemingly endless speeches, the crowd began cheering ecstatically when Han Kuo-yu, the new star of the opposition Kuomintang, finally arrived. It took him 10 minutes to reach the stage, shaking his clasped hands in appreciation as his admirers crowded him, hoping to get photos.
他们在雨中等待了几个小时,听了似乎没完没了的演讲之后,反对党国民党的新星韩国瑜终于到了,人群立刻开始欣喜若狂地欢呼起来。韩国瑜向人群抱拳致谢,崇拜者蜂拥而上,希望给他拍照,他花了10分钟才走上了舞台。
The rally last weekend was a prelude to Mr. Han’s announcement on Wednesday that he was running for president of Taiwan, jolting the race with a populist candidate who wants friendlier ties with China — a sharp contrast to the incumbent, Tsai Ing-wen, who rejects China’s claim that Taiwan is part of its territory.
这个上周末的集会是韩国瑜周三宣布竞选台湾总统的前奏。他的参选震动了选举,这位民粹主义候选人与现任总统蔡英文形成了鲜明对比,他希望与中国大陆有更好的关系,而蔡英文拒绝承认中国所谓的台湾是其领土一部分的说法。
“Why are we all here today?” Mr. Han asked the huge crowd, composed largely of retirees bused in from southern and central Taiwan. “Because the Democratic Progressive Party hasn’t improved people’s lives,” he said, referring to Ms. Tsai’s party.
“我们今天为什么在这里?”韩国瑜向黑压压的人群发问,他们主要由从台湾南部和中部用大巴运来的退休人员组成。“因为民进党没有改善人们的生活,”他指的是蔡英文的政党。
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To his supporters, Mr. Han, who was elected mayor of the city of Kaohsiung just last year, is a straight-shooting maverick unafraid to challenge Taiwan’s political elites. To others, he is a source of concern, as many fear his relative inexperience and eagerness to further open the economy to Chinese investment could compromise Taiwan’s sovereignty.
在支持者眼里,去年才当选高雄市市长的韩国瑜是一个坦诚直言的特立独行者,敢于挑战台湾的政治精英。在其他人的眼里,他是一个令人担忧的根源,因为许多人担心,他相对来说缺乏经验,而且急于向大陆投资进一步开放经济的打算,可能会损害台湾的主权。
Austin Wang, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, who studies Taiwan, said many of Mr. Han’s supporters were retired civil servants, teachers or soldiers, who once had special pensions that provided them with comfortable lifestyles.
研究台湾问题的内华达大学拉斯维加斯分校(University of Nevada, Las Vegas)政治学助理教授王宏恩(Austin Wang)说,许多支持韩国瑜的人都是退休的公务员、教师或军人,这些人曾享有为他们提供了舒适生活方式的特别养老金。
Such retirees — typically from so-called mainland families, who came to Taiwan when the Kuomintang army fled there after Mao Zedong’s Communist forces won China’s civil war — were angered when they lost their special privileges under Ms. Tsai’s pension reforms last year, Mr. Wang said. But in general, they still have higher incomes than most of the young voters who support Ms. Tsai, he said.
王宏恩说,这些退休人员通常来自所谓的大陆家庭,他们的长辈在毛泽东领导的共产党赢得内战后,随国民党军队逃到了台湾。他们在蔡英文去年的养老金改革中失去了特权,因此感到恼火。但总体而言,他们的收入仍高于大多数支持蔡英文的年轻选民——他说。
“Han has promised to restore the old welfare system, so these groups actively organize for Han’s campaign and promote his popularity,” Mr. Wang said. “At the same time, most retired civil servants are also mainlanders, so they have connections with pro-unification activist groups.”
“韩国瑜已承诺恢复旧的福利制度,所以这些团体为韩国瑜的竞选活动积极组织起来,提高了他的受欢迎程度,”王宏恩说。“同时,大多数退休公务员也是大陆人,所以他们与支持统一的活动团体有联系。”
Wearing a yellow poncho and sitting on a plastic stool at the recent rally, Shirley Tang, a Taipei resident, joined the crowd in chants of “Safety for Taiwan, money for the people!” and “Get elected, Han Kuo-yu!”
身穿黄色雨披、坐在塑料凳子上的台北市民唐雪莉(Shirley Tang)是最近这次集会的参加者,她和人群一起高呼着“台湾安全,人民有钱!”、“当选,韩国瑜!”等口号。
To get nominated, let alone elected in January’s voting, Mr. Han will have to defeat the billionaire Terry Gou, whose company is best known for manufacturing iPhones, and Eric Chu, the former mayor of New Taipei City, in the Kuomintang primary next month. Both candidates have support from different party factions — and Han supporters like Ms. Tang have no use for either of them.
先别提在明年1月的大选中当选,韩国瑜要获得提名,首先必须在下个月的国民党初选中击败亿万富翁郭台铭(他的公司以生产iPhone闻名)和曾任新北市市长的朱立伦。两位候选人都得到了国民党内不同派别的支持,像唐女士这样的韩国瑜支持者认为,这些派别对他们来说没有任何用处。
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“The people in charge today all have vested interests; we don’t want them,” she said. “Han Kuo-yu represents the common people.”
“今天的掌权者都有既得利益;我们不需要他们,”她说。“韩国瑜代表老百姓。”
Since 1987, when the Kuomintang ended decades of martial law, a Taiwanese identity distinct from that of China has developed, and the party has found itself drawing closer to China. Mr. Han’s entry into the presidential race means the contest will likely be galvanized by the question of whether Taiwan should resume warmer ties with Beijing, which has made accepting the idea that Taiwan is part of China a prerequisite for any talks.
自1987年国民党结束了数十年的戒严令以来,台湾人开始有了一种与中国大陆截然不同的身份认同,国民党则发现自己与中国大陆越来越亲近。韩国瑜的参选意味着,竞选将很可能围绕着一个激烈的问题展开,那就是台湾是否应该与北京恢复更友好的关系。北京将接受台湾是中国一部分的观点作为任何谈判的先决条件。
韩国瑜的支持者在台北举行集会。
韩国瑜的支持者在台北举行集会。 Daniel Shih/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
The Kuomintang has always considered Taiwan a part of the Republic of China, the government it relocated across the strait, and Taiwan’s official name today, and all three of its candidates have said so. But some of Mr. Han’s remarks and actions have convinced his critics that he is far too close to the mainland. It is widely believed here that Mr. Han is China’s preferred presidential candidate.
国民党一直认为台湾是中华民国的一部分,它把中华民国政府搬到了海峡对岸的台湾,而台湾如今的正式名称就是中华民国,国民党的三位候选人都认可这个观点。但韩国瑜的一些言论和行为让他的批评者认为,他与中国大陆的关系过于密切。在这里,人们普遍认为韩国瑜是中国大陆希望获胜的总统候选人。
At the Saturday rally in Taipei, held three days before the 30th anniversary of the bloody crackdown on the Tiananmen Square democracy movement in Beijing, Mr. Han praised Deng Xiaoping, China’s top leader at the time of the killings, for his economic reforms.
周六在台北举行的这次集会,是在北京天安门广场民主运动遭血腥镇压30周年纪念日的三天前举行的。韩国瑜在集会上赞扬了当时下令镇压的中国最高领导人邓小平的经济改革。
In February, weeks after taking office as mayor, Mr. Han made a trip to China that he said was aimed at selling produce from Kaohsiung. Millions of dollars in nonbinding deals were signed with Chinese companies, winning him adulation from the mostly pro-Kuomintang and pro-China media in Taiwan.
今年2月,在出任市长几周后,韩国瑜访问了中国,他说,此行的目的是推销高雄的农产品。他与中国的公司签署了价值数百万美元不具约束性的协议,赢得了台湾那些通常亲国民党和亲中媒体的称赞。
During that trip, he met with Liu Jieyi, the director of China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, who flew from Beijing to the city of Shenzhen to meet him. He also met behind closed doors with the top Communist officials in Hong Kong and Macau, which are administered by China under “one country, two systems” arrangements that, at least in theory, give the territories a high degree of autonomy. In recent years, political freedoms in Hong Kong have been eroding under pressure from Beijing.
在那次访问中,中国的台湾事务办公室主任刘结一从北京飞到深圳与韩国瑜见了面。韩国瑜还与香港和澳门的共产党高层官员举行了闭门会晤。香港和澳门由中国按照“一国两制”的框架管理,该框架至少在理论上给予这些地区某种高度自治。近年来,在北京的压力下,香港的政治自由不断受到侵蚀。
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China’s leader, Xi Jinping, who in January vowed that the country would eventually take control of Taiwan, has offered similar semiautonomy to the Taiwanese people, hoping to entice them into peaceful unification. But poll after poll has shown that an overwhelming majority of Taiwanese reject a Hong Kong-style arrangement.
今年1月,中国领导人习近平曾发誓,大陆将最终收复台湾,他也向台湾人民提出了类似的半自治方案,希望吸引他们实现和平统一。但一次又一次的民意调查显示,绝大多数台湾人不接受“一国两制”的安排
Huang Jie, a Kaohsiung city councilor, said it was troubling that Mr. Han had not voiced opposition to a “one country, two systems” model for Taiwan during his trip to China.
高雄市议员黄捷说,韩国瑜在此次访问期间没有对在台湾实行“一国两制”模式表示反对,这令人担忧。
Ms. Huang is a member of the New Power Party, which grew out of a protest movement in 2014 that halted the Kuomintang’s plans to open Taiwan’s service sector to Chinese investment. In May, she questioned Mr. Han about his plan to establish a free economic zone in Kaohsiung, which critics say will give China greater influence in the city. Ms. Huang gained a measure of fame when a clip of her giving an eyeroll to Mr. Han, who appeared unable to explain details of his plan, went viral.
黄捷是新政党“时代力量”(New Power Party)的成员,这个政党产生于2014年的抗议运动,那场运动阻止了国民党向大陆投资开放台湾服务业的计划。今年5月,黄捷就韩国瑜在高雄建立自由经济区的计划向他提出了质疑。批评人士说,自由经济区将使中国在高雄拥有更大的影响力。一段有关两人的视频在网上疯传起来,让黄捷获得了一定的名气。视频中,韩国瑜似乎不能解释自己计划的细节,黄捷对他翻了白眼
Since becoming Taiwan’s most famous city councilor, Ms. Huang said, she has received both an outpouring of support and a barrage of online criticism, much of it written in the simplified Chinese characters used in mainland China but not Taiwan. “You can tell it’s coming from China’s online army,” she said in an interview.
黄捷说,自从成为台湾最有名的市议员以来,她既得到了大量支持,也受到了网上接二连三的批评,其中很多是用简体字写的。简体字在中国大陆使用,台湾不用。“你可以看出这是来自中国的网络大军,”她在接受采访时说。
Ms. Huang said she was more concerned about Mr. Han becoming president than about the vitriol. “I don’t think he understands national security,” she said of Mr. Han. “If he becomes president, it will be a threat to our country.”
黄捷说,她更担心的是韩国瑜当选总统,而不是那些尖刻无情的批评。“我认为他不懂国家安全,”她在谈到韩国瑜时说。“如果他当选总统,那将对我们的国家构成威胁。”
Kathy Hong, a marketing consultant and Kaohsiung native, said she believed Mr. Han’s biggest priority as mayor had been to promote his presidential aspirations. Ms. Hong said she and many of her friends feared the prospect of Mr. Han becoming president and signing an agreement with China that would give up Taiwan’s sovereignty.
营销顾问、高雄本地人凯西·洪(Kathy Hong)说,她觉得,韩国瑜当市长的首要任务是实现自己当总统的抱负。洪女士说,她和许多朋友都担心一种前景,那就是韩国瑜当选总统,与中国大陆签署放弃台湾主权的协议。
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“It’s scary, the thought of him winning feels like handing Taiwan to China,” she said. “If it happens, I’ll seriously think about emigrating.”
“那很可怕,他获胜的想法让人觉得就像是把台湾拱手送给了中国,”她说。“如果真是那样的话,我会认真地考虑移民。”
Some voters who backed Mr. Han’s successful campaign for mayor have since soured on him. Guan Chang, a well-known video blogger, changed his mind about Mr. Han in recent weeks as his presidential ambitions became clear, and has apologized to his followers for previously supporting him.
一些曾支持韩国瑜成功当选市长的选民,后来也对他产生了反感。随着韩国瑜竞选总统的野心变得越来越明显,知名视频博主馆长已在最近几周改变了对韩国瑜的看法,并因之前支持过韩国瑜向粉丝们道歉。
But his fervent supporters see Mr. Han as Taiwan’s best hope. Thunder Lei, a Kaohsiung retiree, said he had made the city’s residents “happy and feeling like the future is bright.”
但是,韩国瑜的狂热支持者们认为,他是台湾的最佳希望。桑德·雷(Thunder Lei)是高雄的一名退休人员,他说,韩国瑜让高雄的居民“很开心,感觉前途一片光明”。
“Han Kuo-yu is respectable, responsible and reliable,” Mr. Lei said, “The others aren’t.”
“韩国瑜正派、负责、可靠,”雷先生说,“其他人都不行。”