China is swelling into a military superpower. India, Vietnam and Singapore are spending more on defense. Japan is leaning to do the same. Now Australia, backed by the United States and Britain, has catapulted the military contest with Beijing in Asia into a tense new phase.
Their deal last week to equip Australia with stealthy, long-range nuclear-powered submarines better able to take on the Chinese navy could accelerate an Asian arms buildup long before the submarines enter service.
In response, China may step up its military modernization, especially in technology able to stymie the submarines. And by confirming the Biden administration’s determination to take on Chinese power in Asia, the new weapons deal may tilt other big military spenders like India and Vietnam into accelerating their own weapons plans.
Countries trying to stay in the middle, like Indonesia, Malaysia and others, face a potentially more volatile region and growing pressure, as Australia did, to choose sides between Washington and Beijing.
“The picture is one of three Anglo-Saxon countries drumming up militarily in the Indo-Pacific region. It plays to the narrative offered by China that ‘outsiders’ are not acting in line with the aspiration of regional countries,” said Dino Patti Djalal, a former Indonesian ambassador to the United States. “The worry is that this will spark an untimely arms race, which the region does not need now, nor in the future.”
“现在的情况是,三个盎格鲁—撒克逊国家在印度—太平洋地区兜揽军事生意,这符合中国的说法,即‘外部势力’以不符合区域国家意愿的方式行动,”曾任印尼驻美国大使的迪诺·帕蒂·贾拉尔(Dino Patti Djalal)说。“令人担心的是,这将引发一场不合时宜的军备竞赛,这个地区现在不需要这种竞赛,将来也不需要。”
The submarines won’t hit the water for at least a decade. But the geopolitical waves from their announcement have been instant, while giving Beijing time to marshal opposition among Asian neighbors and plot military countermoves.
Japan and Taiwan, both strong United States allies, quickly endorsed the security agreement.
Other Asian governments have, through their remarks or silence, signified misgivings or apprehension about riling China. Many leaders in Southeast Asia want the United States to remain a security mainstay, said Ben Bland, the director of the Southeast Asia program at the Lowy Institute in Sydney.
对于激怒中国的做法,其他亚洲国家的政府通过置评或沉默表示了顾虑或担忧。悉尼洛伊研究所(Lowy Institute)东南亚项目主任本·布兰德(Ben Bland)说,东南亚的许多领导人希望美国的安全支柱作用保持不变。
“But they also fear that the increasingly strident approach taken by the U.S. and allies such as Australia will push China to respond in kind,” he said, “driving a cycle of escalation that is centered on Southeast Asia but disregards Southeast Asian voices.”
Even before the deal, some governments had deployed new ships, submarines and missiles, at least partly out of worry about China’s rapid military buildup and contentious territorial claims. China accounts for 42 percent of all military spending across Asia, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
甚至在协议宣布之前,一些国家的政府已经部署了新的舰艇、潜艇和导弹,至少部分是出于对中国快速军事建设和有争议领土主张的担忧。来自国际战略研究所(International Institute for Strategic Studies)的数据显示,中国占亚洲全部军事开支的42%。
Japanese policymakers have begun to publicly consider increasing military spending beyond 1 percent of its gross domestic product, a cap that the country has maintained since the 1970s. South Korea, focused on the threat from North Korea, has increased its defense budget by 7 percent a year on average since 2018.
周一,澳大利亚总理斯科特·莫里森乘坐澳大利亚皇家空军的飞机自悉尼飞往美国与拜登总统会晤。 Joel Carrett/Australian Associated Press, via Associated Press
India has ratcheted up military spending as tensions with China have risen, though the economic hit from the coronavirus may slow that trend.
Indian plans to acquire another 350 locally assembled military aircraft in the next two decades, its air force chief said this month. Japan is working on hypersonic missiles that could threaten Chinese naval ships in a conflict. Taiwan, the self-governed island that China regards as its own territory, has proposed a $16.8 billion military budget for next year, including $1.4 billion for more jet fighters.
The Biden administration promises to help Asian nations counter China’s military buildup, something the new agreement with Australia highlights. That agenda is likely to be discussed in the White House this week when President Biden hosts other leaders from the “Quad,” the grouping that includes Australia, Japan and India.
“China is the pacing threat that we have to be concerned about, not only today, but also in the near term and in the long term,” General John E. Hyten, the vice chairman of the United States’ Joint Chiefs of Staff, said at an event for the Brookings Institution last week.
“中国是我们必须担心的步步逼近的威胁,不仅是现在,也从近期和长期来看,”美国参谋长联席会议副主席、空军上将约翰·E·海顿(John E. Hyten)上周在布鲁金斯学会的一个活动上说。
But many governments across Asia, especially in Southeast Asia, hope to avoid having to make the same choice that Australia’s prime minister, Scott Morrison, made last week in declaring a “forever partnership” with the United States.
但亚洲许多国家的政府,尤其是东南亚国家的政府,希望避免不得不做出澳大利亚总理斯科特·莫里森(Scott Morrison)上周做出的选择,即宣布与美国的“永久伙伴关系”
中国水手在新型导弹驱逐舰“南昌号”的甲板上,摄于2019年山东青岛附近。 Pool by Mark Schiefelbein
India, which has veered between border clashes with China and efforts to patch up ties with its neighbor, has been muted about the agreement. So has South Korea, which wants to keep steady relations with Beijing while it focuses on potential conflict with North Korea.
Indonesia’s foreign ministry said it was “deeply concerned over the continuing arms race.” Malaysia has voiced worry.
Lee Hsien Loong, the prime minister of Singapore, a city-state with good ties to both Beijing and Washington, diplomatically told Mr. Morrison that he hoped “the partnership would contribute constructively to the peace and stability of the region,” the Straits Times reported.
据《海峡时报》(Straits Times)报道,新加坡总理李显龙用外交辞令对莫里森说,他希望“这一伙伴关系将为该地区的和平与稳定做出建设性的贡献”。新加坡是个城邦国家,与北京和华盛顿都保持良好的关系。
Outwardly, Australia’s plan to eventually build at least eight nuclear-powered submarines might seem to make little difference to China’s calculus. With about 360 vessels, the Chinese navy is the biggest in the world by number, and has around a dozen nuclear-powered submarines. Its nuclear submarine fleet is likely to grow to 21 by 2030, according to the United States’ Office of Naval Intelligence.
从表面上看,澳大利亚最终建造至少八艘核动力潜艇的计划似乎对中国的算盘没有什么影响。从数量来看,中国海军规模是世界上最大的,拥有约360艘军舰以及约12艘核动力潜艇。据美国海军部情报局(Office of Naval Intelligence)的信息,到2030年时,中国核动力潜艇舰队可能会增加到21艘。
The United States’ Navy has about 300 vessels, including 68 submarines, all of them nuclear. Even if Australia is relatively swift and efficient — not traits that have marked its submarine acquisitions over the decades — its first nuclear-powered submarines may not be commissioned until later in the 2030s.
今年4月,中国最高领导人习近平在海南三亚把中国人民解放军军旗授予海军艇长。 Li Gang/Xinhua, via Associated Press
Positioning the hard-to-track submarines closer to seas near China, Japan and the Korean Peninsula could be a powerful deterrent against China’s military, said Drew Thompson, a former Pentagon official responsible for relations with China.
将这些难以追踪的潜艇部署在靠近中国、日本和朝鲜半岛的海域,可能对中国军方构成一种有力的威慑,前五角大楼负责中国事务的官员唐安竹(Drew Thompson)说。
“The Middle East wars have ended,” said Mr. Thompson, now a visiting senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore. “We are in an interwar period, and the next one will be a high-end, high-intensity conflict with a near-peer competitor, probably involving China, and most likely in northeast Asia.”
After condemning the submarine agreement last week, the Chinese government has said little else. But China’s leaders and military planners are sure to consider military and diplomatic countermoves, including new ways to punish Australian exports, already hit by bans and punitive tariffs as relations soured in the past few years.
Beijing can also accelerate efforts to develop technologies for finding and destroying nuclear-powered submarines well before Australia receives them. Most experts said a technological race was more likely than a generalized arms race. China’s output of new naval ships and fighter planes is already rapid. Its anti-submarine technology is less advanced.
Nearer term, Chinese officials may step up efforts to marshal regional opposition to the submarine plan and the new security grouping, called AUKUS, for Australia, United Kingdom and United States.
“If you’re China, this also makes you think, ‘Well, I better get ahead of this,’” said Elbridge Colby, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense in the Trump administration. He said: “If Australia takes this big step, then Japan could take a half step, and Taiwan takes a half step, and then India and then maybe Vietnam.”
“如果你是中国,这也会让你想,‘好吧,我最好要先下手为强,’”曾在特朗普政府担任国防部副助理部长的埃尔布里奇·科尔比(Elbridge Colby)说。他表示:“如果澳大利亚迈出这么一大步,那么日本可能会迈出半步,台湾可能会迈出半步,然后是印度,可能还有越南。”
法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙和时任澳大利亚总理的马尔科姆·特恩布尔站在澳大利亚皇家海军的柴电混合动力潜艇“沃勒号”甲板上,图片摄于2018年,澳大利亚悉尼加登岛。 Pool by Brendan Esposito
But Beijing has created its own high barriers to winning support from neighbors. China’s expansive, uncompromising claims to waters and islands across the South China Sea have angered Southeast Asian countries. Beijing is also locked in territorial disputes with Japan, India and other countries.
“This AUKUS agreement very vividly shows that East Asia has become the focus of United States global security strategy,” said Zhu Feng, a professor of international relations at Nanjing University in east China. “It’s a reminder to China that if we can’t ease tensions with neighbors over the South China Sea and East China Sea, the U.S. will continue trying to take advantage of this tension.”