Tens of millions of Chinese confined at home, schools closed, businesses in limbo and whole cities at a standstill. Once again, China is locking down enormous parts of society, trying to completely eradicate Covid in a campaign that grows more anomalous by the day as the rest of the world learns to live with the coronavirus.

數千萬的中國人被關在家中，學校關閉，商業活動停滯，一座座城市都處於靜止狀態。中國再次封鎖了很大一部分社會活動，試圖用一場運動徹底根除新冠病毒。隨著世界其他地方逐漸學會與新冠共存，這場運動顯得愈來愈反常。

But even as the costs of China’s zero-Covid strategy are mounting, Beijing faces a stark reality: It has backed itself into a corner. Three years of its uncompromising, heavy-handed approach of imposing lockdowns, quarantines and mass testing to isolate infections have left it little room, at least in the short term, to change course.

儘管中國的清零策略代價越來越大，北京還面臨一個嚴峻的現實：它已使自己陷入了困境。三年來，為隔絕感染，中國採取不妥協而強硬的措施，實行封鎖、隔離和大規模檢測，至少在短期內，它幾乎沒有多少改變方向的餘地。

China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has made clear that zero Covid is as much an ideological undertaking as a public health one. He has tied support for the policy to support for the Communist Party, and hailed its execution as proof of China’s edge over Western democracies. He has prioritized nationalism over the guidance of scientists. Any reversal, or adjustment, would seem to undercut his vision, especially ahead of a major Communist Party meeting next month where Mr. Xi is all but assured to extend his rule.

中國領導人習近平已明確表示，清零政策不僅是公共衛生事業，同時也是意識型態任務。他將對該政策的支持與對中共的支持劃等號，並將該政策的執行作為中國比西方民主國家更優越的證據。他將民族主義置於科學家的指導之上。任何反轉乃至調整似乎都會損害他的願景，特別是在下個月即將召開中共重大會議，而習近平幾乎肯定會延續統治的情況下。

The emphasis on politics has created practical problems. Beijing has refused to approve foreign vaccines, opting instead to provide only less effective homegrown ones to its 1.4 billion people. The government has pushed propaganda depicting the virus as having devastated Western countries, feeding widespread stigma and a fear of infections even among the young and healthy. It has silenced voices seeking to offer a different approach, labeling them traitors.

對政治的強調導致了實際層面的問題。北京拒絕批准引進外國疫苗，只向全國14億人口提供效果不那麼好的國產疫苗。政府推動政治宣傳攻勢，稱病毒摧毀了西方國家，助長了普遍的污名化和對感染的恐懼，即使在年輕和健康的群體中也是如此。它還壓制尋求不同應對辦法的聲音，給他們貼上叛徒的標籤。

Buoyed by its early success at containment, the party was slow at first to encourage vaccination, leaving many older Chinese vulnerable. Since few Chinese have natural immunity from the virus, the risks of loosening controls are potentially even higher.

出於對疫情初期成功控制病毒傳播的自滿，中共在鼓勵接種疫苗方面進展緩慢，使得許多老齡中國人易受感染。由於幾乎沒有中國人對病毒產生自然免疫力，放鬆管控的風險可能會更高。

“That sort of makes the zero-Covid policy self-sustaining,” said Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations.

「這在某種程度上使得清零政策能夠自行維持下去，」美國外交關係委員會全球衛生高級研究員黃嚴忠表示。

At least 65 million Chinese are currently under some form of lockdown, according to a tally by Chinese media, including the southwestern city of Chengdu, home to 21 million people. In cities that are not battling outbreaks, quashing Covid still dictates the rhythms of daily life. Residents line up for mandatory, regular testing and obsessively monitor their health codes, digital markers that dictate whether they can move freely.

據中國媒體統計，目前至少有6500萬中國人處於某種形式的封鎖之下，其中包括擁有2100萬人口的西南城市成都。在不受疫情影響的城市，消滅新冠病毒仍主導著日常生活的節奏。居民們排隊接受強制性的定期檢測，翻來覆去檢查自己的健康碼，這是一種指示他們是否可以自由行動的數字標記。

Many Chinese have found ways to cope, even if reluctantly: putting in longer hours to scrape up more money, cutting back on spending. Complaints about a shortage of medical care or food often emerge, but some residents say they support the overarching goal.

即便很不情願，但許多中國人已經找到了應對辦法：加班加點掙更多錢，減少開支。雖然經常出現對醫療服務或食物不足的抱怨，但一些居民表示，他們支持這種大局。

“Who can get used to this?” said Zhang Lang, a grocery store owner in the southwestern city of Guiyang, who has been under lockdown for three days. “But there’s no choice,” he said. “The epidemic is coming. Do you want what happened in America to happen here?”

「你說這誰習慣得了？」西南城市貴陽的雜貨店老闆張浪說，他已被封鎖三天。「但是沒辦法，因為疫情，」他說。「疫情都來了，難道要搞得和美國一樣嗎？」

Still, the question is how long China’s calculus will remain in favor of the current approach. Youth unemployment is soaring, small businesses are collapsing and overseas companies are shifting their supply chains elsewhere. A sustained slowdown would undermine the promise of economic growth, long the central pillar of the party’s legitimacy.

問題在於，中國的考量還能維持到什麼時候。青年失業率飆升，小企業紛紛倒閉，海外企業則開始將供應鏈轉移至其他地方。如果經濟持續低迷，長期以來都作為中共執政合法性核心支柱的經濟增長承諾就會遭到破壞。

“The social and economic cost will continue to increase. So I think ultimately they’re going to reach a point where the cost exceeds the benefits,” Dr. Huang said. But, he added, “it just might be farther off.”

「社會和經濟代價會繼續增加。所以我認為，他們早晚都會走到成本超過收益的地步，」黃嚴忠說。但他也表示，「這可能還很遙遠。」

For now, officials are sticking closely to the status quo, imposing the most extensive lockdowns in months to contain a series of new outbreaks.

眼下，官員仍緊守現狀，施行數月以來最廣泛的封鎖措施，以遏制接連不斷的新疫情。

The authorities in Guiyang, population six million, ordered a partial lockdown this week after detecting several hundred cases in recent days. In Shanghai, where one asymptomatic infection was announced on Tuesday, officials imposed a one-week lockdown on a hotel where the patient had stayed and urged all residents not to leave the city during a public holiday this weekend.

近段時間發現數百起病例後，人口600萬的貴陽當局本週下令實施部分封鎖。在上海，週二公布了一例無癥狀感染，官員對該患者住過的一家酒店進行了為期一週的封鎖，並敦促所有居民在本週末的公共假期期間不要離開這座城市。

Because of the high political stakes, local governments are likely to err on the side of overreaction to contain outbreaks, said Chen Xi, an associate professor of public health at Yale University. Scores of city officials have been fired or otherwise punished after cases emerged in their jurisdictions. The party meeting on Oct. 16 is adding to the pressure on officials.

耶魯大學公共衛生學院副教授陳希表示，由於政治上的高度風險，地方政府可能寧可用錯誤的過度反應來控制疫情。大批市級官員在轄區出現病例後被免職或遭受其他處罰。10月16日的黨代會也增加了對官員的壓力。

“Given the sensitive timing before the party congress, local governments are afraid of making any mistakes, making the central government’s policies unnecessarily more stringent,” Professor Chen said.

「鑒於黨代會召開前的敏感時期，地方政府害怕犯錯誤，使中央政府的政策變得過於嚴格，」陳希說。

China’s pursuit of zero Covid has often been single-minded, overriding all other concerns. Hospitals trying to avoid the risk of infection have turned away patients in dire need of care. Enforcers of lockdowns have barged into people’s homes or killed pets left behind by quarantined owners. When a 6.8-magnitude earthquake struck Luding County in Sichuan Province on Monday, residents in the locked-down city of Chengdu, the provincial capital, were blocked from leaving their homes even as buildings shook, according to widely circulated posts on social media.

中國對清零的追求常常是一根筋的，凌駕於其他一切問題之上。醫院為了避免感染風險，曾將急需救助的患者拒之門外。封鎖的執行者闖入民宅或撲殺被隔離者留下的寵物。根據社群媒體上廣為流傳的帖子，週一四川省瀘定縣發生6.8級地震時，在被封鎖的省會成都，即使建築物搖晃，居民也被阻止離開家。

After a public outcry, Chengdu health officials clarified that physical safety was the top priority in the case of natural disasters.

在公眾強烈抗議之後，成都衛生官員澄清說，在發生自然災害的情況下，應優先保障市民群眾生命安全。

The challenge for China is that its own policies have made it harder to ease restrictions. While other countries prioritized vaccinating the elderly, China made older residents among the last to be eligible, citing concerns about side effects. And it never introduced vaccine passes, perhaps sensitive to public skepticism of its own vaccines.

中國面臨的挑戰是，其自身的政策使得放寬限制變得更加困難。雖然其他國家優先考慮為老年人接種疫苗，但出於對副作用的擔憂，中國將老年居民列為最後接種疫苗的人群。而且它從未採用疫苗通行證，也許是出於對公眾質疑本土疫苗的敏感。

In late July, about 67 percent of people aged 60 and above had received a third shot, compared to 72 percent of the entire population. Medical experts have warned that an uncontrolled outbreak could lead to high numbers of deaths among the elderly, as occurred during a wave this spring in Hong Kong, which also suffered from low vaccination rates.

7月下旬，大約67%的60歲及以上的人接受了第三針疫苗，而整體人口的三針接種率為72%。醫學專家警告說，不受控制的疫情可能導致大量老年人死亡，就像今年春天在香港發生的那波疫情一樣，該地區也受困於低接種率。

But those considerations are entangled with politics, too. China has refused to approve Western mRNA vaccines, though it has struggled to produce its own; its homegrown, inactivated vaccines have proved less clinically effective.

但這些考慮也同政治糾纏在一起。中國拒絕批准西方的mRNA疫苗，儘管它在生產自己的mRNA疫苗方面面臨困境；事實證明，其本土生產的滅活疫苗在臨床上不太有效。

Cai Xia, a retired professor at the Communist Party’s top academy, attributed China’s inflexible approach to Mr. Xi’s desire for total control. In an essay published Wednesday in Foreign Affairs, Ms. Cai, who now lives in the United States, said Mr. Xi had overruled health experts throughout the pandemic.

中共中央黨校退休教授蔡霞將中國不靈活的做法歸因於習近平想要全面控制的願望。在週三發表於《外交事務》(Foreign Affairs)的一篇文章中，現居美國的蔡霞說，整個大流行期間，習近平拒絕聽取衛生專家的意見。

“A leader more open to influence or subject to greater checks would not likely have implemented such a draconian policy, or at least would have corrected course once its costs and unpopularity became evident,” she wrote, in reference to this spring’s lockdown in Shanghai, which led many residents to report shortages of food and medical care. “But for Xi, backtracking would have been an unthinkable admission of error.”

「倘若領導人更開放地接受影響性的意見或被更有力的制衡，似乎不太可能實施如此嚴厲的政策；抑或一旦成本和民怨變得顯而易見，起碼會改弦易轍，」她在談到今年春天在上海的封鎖時寫道，封鎖導致許多居民報告食品和醫療保健短缺。「但對習近平來說，收回成命就好像是承認錯誤，絕無可能。」

There may come a point at which the economic consequences of zero Covid force Beijing to consider a reset.

清零政策的經濟後果可能會在某個時刻迫使北京重新考慮對策。

Youth unemployment has reached a record 20 percent, according to official statistics in August. The nearly three dozen Chinese cities under some form of lockdown represent one-third of China’s entire economic output, according to Hao Hong, the chief economist and a partner at Grow Investment Management in Hong Kong.

根據8月的官方統計數據，青年失業率已達到創紀錄的20%。香港GROW思睿首席經濟學家兼合伙人洪灝表示，30多個中國城市正處於某種形式的封鎖，這些城市佔中國全部經濟產出的三分之一。

Survival is top of mind for business owners like Lu Wei, 50, who runs a restaurant in Daqing, in northeastern China. She and her husband have been sealed at home for three weeks, and she worries about how she will pay rent. She is relying on the government for deliveries of fresh vegetables and drawing from her store of pickled vegetables when they don’t arrive.

50歲的呂偉在中國東北的大慶經營著一家餐館，對於她這樣的企業主來說，最重要的是生存。她和丈夫被封在家中三週，她擔心如何支付房租。她依賴政府送來的新鮮蔬菜，如果蔬菜沒有送到，她就從自家店裡拿腌菜。

But Ms. Lu said she was used to measures such as daily testing and believed they could keep her safe. She said she did not have any specific changes she would like to see to Covid policies, other than perhaps the flexibility to order online food deliveries.

但呂偉說，她已經習慣了每日核酸檢測等措施，相信這些措施可以保證她的安全。她說，對於新冠防控政策，也許除了希望允許更靈活地在網上叫外賣之外，她沒有什麼具體想要改變的。

“I just hope we can achieve zero as soon as possible,” she said.

「我就希望早點清零，」她說。