PARIS — Imagine Europe as a target on a radar screen, and you can see the warning alerts flashing red and ubiquitous. Europe is undergoing a multipronged, hybrid attack. The assailants do not coordinate and their goals may vary. But what these flashing signs represent is clear: In the new great-power competition among the United States, China and Russia, Europe has become prey. Its political allegiance to a weakening West, its internal divisions, its attractive assets and its market of 500 million consumers make it an ideal target.
巴黎——想象一下,欧洲是雷达屏幕上的一个目标,你可以看到到处都是红色警报在闪烁。欧洲正经受一场混合式攻击,四面楚歌。攻击者并没有协调一致的行动,目标也可能各不相同。但这些闪烁的含义显而易见:在美国、中国和俄罗斯之间新的大国竞争中,欧洲已经成为了牺牲品。它对日益衰落的西方的政治忠诚、它的内部分裂、它诱人的资产及其拥有5亿消费者的市场,使之成为一个理想的目标。
The six-day visit to Italy and France that China’s president, Xi Jinping, is finishing this week could be read as a case study of one great power testing those points of weakness and wealth.
中国国家主席习近平本周结束了对意大利和法国为期六天的访问,这可以被解读为一个大国检验这些弱点和财富的案例研究。
Russia, for its part a familiar friend and foe, has been at work for some time. The range of Moscow’s tools to undermine democratic electoral processes and the cohesion of the European Union, from troll factories to assistance provided to far-right and anti-establishment parties, is now part of our political landscape.
俄罗斯作为我们熟悉的朋友和敌人,一段时间以来一直在发挥作用。从“喷子”工厂到向极右翼和反建制政党提供的援助,莫斯科用来破坏民主选举进程和欧盟凝聚力的一系列手段,如今已成为我们的政治景观的一部分。
Five years of sanctions for the annexation of Crimea have not dented the Kremlin’s appetite for meddling in European affairs, nor have they prevented Russia from doing lucrative business. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, over the past couple of years Russia has managed to increase its economic footprint in European Union countries that are more welcoming than others, notably Austria, Italy and the Netherlands. Another recent report, by the online activist organization Avaaz, has shown the active role played by the French-language version of Russia Today, the Russian state media organization; it includes disseminating news, real and fake, about the “yellow vests” protests in France. The station’s constant coverage of the most violent clashes have proved widely popular on YouTube.
因吞并克里米亚而遭受的5年制裁,既没有削弱克里姆林宫干预欧洲事务的胃口,也没有阻止俄罗斯做有利可图的生意。华盛顿战略与国际研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)的数据显示,过去几年,俄罗斯成功地扩大了其在一些欧盟国家的经济足迹,尤其是在奥地利、意大利和荷兰等相对友好的国家。在线行动主义组织Avaaz近期发布了另一份报告,展示了俄罗斯官方媒体机构今日俄罗斯(Russia Today)法语版的活跃角色,包括传播有关法国“黄色背心”抗议的真真假假的新闻。他们持续报道抗议中的一些最为暴力的冲突,被证明在YouTube上广受欢迎。
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China uses a different approach. Under the guise of the concept of a new Silk Road, with its echoes of Marco Polo, President Xi wants to connect Europe to China economically. This has meant buying the port of Athens and some other crucial gates to southern Europe. Greece was desperate for money, Germany could see no wrong. The new Silk Road, now more prosaically described as the Belt and Road Initiative, has also involved setting up an organization called 16+1 (16 European former Communist states, 11 of them European Union members, plus China) to kindly help them build infrastructure. “In two years, I have had six bilateral meetings with my Chinese counterpart,” the prime minister of one small European Union country in the 16+1 said. “Need I say more?”
中国则采取了不同的方法。打着呼应马可·波罗的“新丝绸之路”概念旗号,习近平主席希望在经济上将欧洲与中国联系起来。这意味着购买雅典的一处港口和其他一些通往南欧的重要门户。希腊极度渴望资金,德国看不出有什么不对。新丝绸之路,现在更通俗地被称为“一带一路”倡议,也包括建立一个名为“16+1”的组织(16个欧洲前共产主义国家,其中11个是欧盟成员国,加上中国),友好地帮助他们建设基础设施。“两年来,我与中国外长举行了6次双边会谈,”16+1组织中一个欧盟小国的总理表示。“还需要我多说吗?”
More daringly, the highlight of Mr. Xi’s visit to Italy, a founding member of the European Union, was the signing on Saturday of a Memorandum of Understanding to endorse the Belt and Road Initiative project.
更大胆的是,周六,欧盟创始成员国之一的意大利签署了一份支持“一带一路”倡议项目的谅解备忘录,这是习近平此次访问的亮点。
No longer content with the periphery, China is aiming for the heart of Europe with newfound tenacity: When Washington and Brussels expressed their displeasure with his move on Italy, Beijing doubled down. The United States, supposedly Europe’s greatest ally, has its own fight with China — a big fight over trade that has already slowed economic growth in Europe, and over technological dominance. In a normal world, Washington would have enrolled its European allies in its fight. But this is not a normal world. President Trump’s America treats Europe either as a competitor or as a vassal.
中国不再满足于边缘地带,正以更坚定的态度瞄准欧洲的心脏:华盛顿和布鲁塞尔对习近平在意大利采取的行动表示不满,而北京变本加厉。被认为是欧洲最大盟友的美国本身也在和中国对抗——这是一场关于贸易和技术优势的大战,其中贸易战已减缓了欧洲的经济增长。在一个正常的世界里,华盛顿会让它的欧洲盟友加入战斗。但这不是一个正常的世界。特朗普总统领导下的美国要么将欧洲视为竞争对手,要么视为附庸。
Not a week has passed without new bullying from the Trump administration. At the Munich Security Conference in mid-February, Vice President Mike Pence ordered European Union governments to withdraw from the Iranian nuclear deal and stop “undermining” American sanctions — which also penalize European companies. French and British defense officials were incensed when America, whom they had followed into Syria, decided unilaterally to withdraw its troops while asking the French to stay behind. And, at a tense discussion about European defense behind closed doors, a senior American diplomat, speaking with a grant of anonymity from reporters in order to allow frankness, sternly lectured West European participants for not being “sensitive to the United States and to President Trump.”
特朗普政府每周都在进行新的恐吓。在2月中旬的慕尼黑安全会议上,副总统迈克·彭斯(Mike Pence)命令欧盟各国政府退出伊朗核协议,并且停止“破坏”美国的制裁——欧洲公司也在这些制裁的惩罚范围内。法国和英国的国防官员也被激怒了,因为他们跟随美国进入叙利亚,美国却单方面决定撤军,同时要求法国继续留下。此外,据一位为了可以畅所欲言而要求匿名的知情者说,在一场秘密进行的有关欧洲防务的紧张讨论中,一名美国高级外交官严厉斥责西欧与会者“对美国和特朗普总统不体谅”。
Then came warnings against choosing the giant Chinese tech company Huawei to develop fifth-generation (5G) wireless networks, and threats by Richard Grenell, the American ambassador to Germany, of retaliation involving restrictions on intelligence sharing. Gordon Sondland, the United States’ ambassador to the European Union, warned of retaliation if Brussels limits the involvement of American companies in European military projects. Mr. Trump threatened Europe with “severe” economic pain if no progress was made in delicate trade talks. Soon enough, reports came out of Washington that Mr. Trump wants to bill European countries for the deployment of American troops, plus 50 percent for the privilege of hosting them, according to Bloomberg News.
随后,美国警告不要选择中国科技巨头华为来开发第五代无线网络(5G),美国驻德国大使理查德·格雷内尔(Richard Grenell)警告称,如果选择华为,美国将采取限制情报共享等报复措施。美国驻欧盟大使戈登·桑德兰(Gordon Sondland)警告称,如果欧盟限制美国公司参与欧洲军事项目,美国将采取报复行动。特朗普威胁称,如果复杂的贸易谈判没有取得进展,欧洲将遭受“严重”的经济损失。据彭博新闻社(Bloomberg News)报道,很快,华盛顿就有报道称,特朗普想让欧洲国家为美国在欧洲的驻军买单,再加50%以获得美国驻军这个优待。
Europe is a soft target. A close group of 28 states, but not a federal state, it is hampered by its complex decision-making process. The Brexit chaos will inevitably leave its mark. As the French historian Pierre Nora has noted, Europeans, once masters of the world, are now pushed to its periphery.
欧洲是一个软目标。它是一个由28个州组成的紧密团体,但不是一个联邦国家,受其复杂决策过程的阻碍。英国脱欧的混乱将不可避免地留下印记。正如法国历史学家皮埃尔·诺拉(Pierre Nora)所指出的,欧洲人曾经是世界的主人,现在却被推到了边缘。
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But Europe does not have to accept defeat.
但欧洲不是必须接受失败。
A senior European intelligence official recently said there was a wake-up call in the range of threats confronting the E.U., including interference from Russia and the alt-right, and America’s “weaponization of extraterritorial laws in order to weaken our companies.”
一位欧洲高级情报官员最近表示,欧盟面临的一系列威胁包括来自俄罗斯和另类右翼的干涉,以及美国“为了削弱我们的公司而将域外法律武器化”,这些都敲响了警钟。
“We must assert our European economic sovereignty,” he said. “We must rearm collectively.”
“我们必须维护我们的欧洲经济主权,”他说。“我们必须集体重整军备。”
For that to take place, unity and political will are essential. Within the European Union as it is, that would be an uphill battle.
要做到这一点,团结和政治意愿是必不可少的。在欧盟内部,这将是一场艰苦的战斗。
Europeans need more than a wake-up call. They must decide whether they can contemplate the prospect of their continent being cut up piece by piece by competing bigger powers, or whether they want to regain enough collective strength and common sense to control their own destiny. 5G networks will be a test. Though Huawei has the technological lead, strong doubts persist about its security. There are European alternatives. As the German center-right politician Norbert Röttgen pointed out on Twitter, “Europe has the technological capabilities to become an actor itself. That would be expensive. Hence the political question: Do we want to seize this opportunity or let it pass?”
欧洲需要的不仅仅是一个警钟。他们必须决定,他们是否可以设想欧洲大陆被更大的强国在竞争中瓜分的前景,还是希望重新获得足够的集体力量和常理意识,以便控制自己的命运。5G网络将是一个考验。尽管华为在技术上处于领先地位,但外界对其安全性仍存在强烈质疑。欧洲也有其他选择。正如德国中右翼政治家诺伯特·罗根(Norbert Röttgen)在Twitter上指出的,“欧洲本身就有成为参与者的技术能力。那会很昂贵。所以,政治问题来了:我们是想抓住这个机会,还是坐等机会过去?”
But what role would Europe play in this new world? On March 5, France’s President Emmanuel Macron issued a solemn call for “A European Renaissance” that was published throughout Europe. “Europe is not just an economic market. It is a project,” he wrote, adding that the European civilization “unites, frees and protects us.” In an understated reaction titled “Getting Europe Right,” Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer of Germany, the new leader of the conservative Christian Democratic Union, set out a different vision. The contrast could be called the status quo vision versus the strategic vision.
但欧洲在这个新世界中将扮演什么角色呢?3月5日,法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙(Emmanuel Macron)庄严呼吁“欧洲复兴”的文章在欧洲各地发表。“欧洲不仅仅是一个经济市场。它也是一个形象,”他写道他还说欧洲文明“保护着我们,令我们团结起来,令我们自由。”德国保守派基督教民主联盟(Christian Democratic Union)新任领导人安妮格丽特·克雷普-卡伦鲍尔(Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer)在题为《让欧洲走上正轨》的文章中作出了低调的回应,阐述了不同的愿景。这种不同可以称为现状愿景与战略愿景的反差。
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The lack of accord between these two close, major European nations shows the extent of the challenge. On China, though, they finally seem ready to act together. Moved by a sense of urgency to counter the Chinese divisive strategy, President Macron has invited Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel and the president of the European Union’s executive arm to join him in what was originally planned as a bilateral meeting with President Xi, on Tuesday in Paris.
这两个关系密切的欧洲主要国家之间缺乏共识,显示出挑战有多么大。然而,在中国问题上,他们似乎终于准备好一起行动了。法国总统马克龙意识到对抗中国分歧制造战略的紧迫性,已邀请德国总理安格拉·默克尔(Angela Merkel)和欧盟执行机构主席于周二在巴黎与他一起会见习近平,该会面原定为他与习近平的双边会晤。
Some European leaders still see their continent as the last defender of democracy and multilateralism. Few, unfortunately, are ready to unite to take up that fight.
一些欧洲领导人仍然把欧洲大陆视为民主和多元化的最后捍卫者。不幸的是,几乎没有人愿意团结起来进行斗争。