WASHINGTON — At the end of a winding answer on Thursday about competing with China and about his relationship with Xi Jinping, a man he said does not have a democratic “bone in his body,” President Biden offered up a revealing assessment of one of America’s most pressing challenges.
華盛頓——週四,拜登在就美中競爭以及他與習近平的關係所做的冗長繁複的回答最後說,習近平「骨子裡沒有一丁點的民主」,並對美國最緊迫的挑戰之一做出了透徹的評估。
“This is a battle between the utility of democracies in the 21st century and autocracies,” he told reporters at his first news conference as president. “We’ve got to prove democracy works.”
「這是21世紀的民主與專制的較量,」他在就任總統後的首次新聞發布會上對記者說。「我們必須證明民主是可行的。」
China’s president, Mr. Xi, Mr. Biden said bluntly, was “a smart, smart guy” who shared with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia a belief that “autocracy is the wave of the future and democracy can’t function” in the complexities of the modern world.
拜登直言不諱地說,中國國家主席習近平是一個「非常聰明的人」,他跟俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·V·普丁(Vladimir V. Putin)一樣,都相信在複雜的現代世界裡,「專制是未來的潮流,民主無法發揮作用」。
Among the biggest tasks of his presidency, Mr. Biden seemed to be arguing, is to prove anew to a skeptical world that both American democracy and its model of democratic capitalism still works — and that it is superior to the very different system Mr. Xi is ruthlessly enforcing at home as he tries to extend China’s influence around the world.
拜登似乎主張,在他擔任總統期間最大的任務之一,是向一個對民主抱有懷疑的世界重新證明,美國民主及其民主資本主義模式仍然有效,而且它優於習近平在世界各地試圖擴大中國影響力的同時在國內強制實施的截然不同的制度。
廣告
For a president barely 10 weeks into office, casting the United States as confronting a global struggle with the Chinese model has some clear political benefits. One of the few issues that unites Democrats and Republicans is the need to compete head-on with Beijing. Senator Dan Sullivan, Republican of Alaska, said on Monday that the Chinese have already taken notice.
對於上任不足10周的總統來說,稱美國在全球面臨中國模式的鬥爭,具有顯而易見的政治好處。能夠將民主黨人和共和黨人團結在一起的幾個議題當中就包括與北京正面競爭的需要。阿拉斯加州共和黨參議員丹·沙利文(Dan Sullivan)週一說,中國人已經注意到了這一點。
“They recognize in many ways that we are now finally awakened to the challenge,” he said this week at the Atlantic Council. “And I would call it a bipartisan awakening.”
「他們從許多方面認識到,我們現在終於意識到了這個挑戰,」他本週在智庫大西洋理事會(Atlantic Council)說。「我認為這是兩黨的覺醒。」
Mr. Biden’s aides say his view of the Chinese challenge is not solely one of foreign policy. He plans to make full use of the fear of Beijing’s ambitions as he introduces his infrastructure initiative next week.
拜登的助手們表示,他對中國挑戰的看法不只是在外交政策上。他有意充分利用人們對北京野心的恐懼,在下週公開其基礎設施計劃。
There will be hundreds of billions of dollars for technologies and projects that the Chinese are also pouring cash into, including semiconductors, artificial intelligence and 5G networks, as well as big breakthroughs in electric cars and synthetic biotechnology.
該計劃將會投入數千億美元用於中國人也在大舉投資的技術和項目上,包括半導體、人工智慧和5G網路,以及電動汽車和合成生物技術的重大突破。
On Friday, Mr. Biden said he suggested to Prime Minister Boris Johnson of Britain that the big Western democracies work together to counter China’s ambitious efforts to build better trade routes around the world, a project called the Belt and Road Initiative. The project is one of China’s main instruments for influencing nations in its economic orbit by investing in ports, rail lines, roads and other infrastructure in Asia, Africa and Europe.
週五,拜登表示,他向英國首相鮑里斯·強生(Boris Johnson)建議,西方主要的民主國家應齊心協力,對抗中國在世界各地加強貿易路線建設的雄心勃勃的努力,即「一帶一路」倡議。通過投資亞非歐的港口、鐵路、公路和其他基礎設施,該項目是中國對其經濟軌道上的國家施加影響的主要手段之一。
“We talked about China and the competition they’re engaging in in the Belt and Road Initiative,” Mr. Biden said. “And I suggested we should have, essentially, a similar initiative coming from the democratic states, helping those communities around the world.”
「我們談到了中國,以及他們在「一帶一路」倡議中面臨的競爭,」拜登說。「我建議,從根本上說,我們應該有一個類似的、來自民主國家的倡議,幫助世界各地的那些社區。」
廣告
There is a striking similarity between Mr. Biden’s list and Mr. Xi’s “Made in China 2025” initiative — which was first announced six years ago as an effort to make China largely independent of Western suppliers for critical technology.
拜登的清單與習近平的「中國製造2025」有著驚人的相似之處。「中國製造2025」於六年前首次宣布,該倡議是為了讓中國在關鍵技術上基本擺脫對西方的依賴。
At the core of Mr. Biden’s infrastructure and supply-chain initiatives is an effort — parts of which began in the Trump years — to ensure the West is not dependent on Chinese technology. It is a battle that blossomed over Huawei, the maker of next-generation communications networks, but has now spread to fears that Chinese apps like TikTok could be a pathway for attacks on American infrastructure.
拜登的基礎設施和供應鏈計劃的核心是確保西方國家不依賴中國的技術,這一努力部分始於川普時代。這場戰役從針對下一代通信網路的製造商華為開始,但現在已經發展到擔心像TikTok這樣的中國應用程序可能成為攻擊美國基礎設施的途徑。
“China is outinvesting us by a long shot,” Mr. Biden said, previewing his argument, “because their plan is to own that future.”
拜登在預告他的觀點時說:「中國的投資遠遠超越了我們,因為他們的計劃是擁有那個未來。」
It is a time-tested approach: President Dwight D. Eisenhower used the launch of Sputnik 1, the first artificial satellite, to spur a military and civilian space race, and President John F. Kennedy picked up on the theme in setting the goal for landing a man on the moon.
這是一種久經考驗的方法:德懷特·D·艾森豪威爾(Dwight D. Eisenhower)總統利用第一顆人造衛星「斯普特尼克1號」(Sputnik 1)的發射,激發了一場軍事和民用太空競賽,而約翰·F·甘迺迪(John F. Kennedy)總統延續了這一方法,將目標設定為登月。
A decade ago, President Barack Obama used his State of the Union address to call for a “Sputnik moment” of public investment, also using China as a spur, but the effort fell flat.
十年前,貝拉克·歐巴馬(Barack Obama)總統在國情咨文中呼籲公共投資的「斯普特尼克時刻」,也是以中國作為推動力,但沒有達到效果。
Yet for all the unanimity around the China challenge, it is far from clear whether Mr. Biden’s political strategy will work.
然而,儘管各方對中國的挑戰意見一致,但拜登的政治策略是否會奏效遠未可知。
Republicans object to both the huge government spending in the Biden plan and to the overhang of debt it would create. And there seems bound to be a rerun of the arguments, dating to the 1980s, over whether a federal “industrial policy” — where taxpayer dollars are poured directly into technologies in which the United States judges it must stay ahead — that creates a competitive advantage for America makes sense or just squelches the innovations of Silicon Valley.
共和黨人既反對拜登計劃中的巨額政府支出,也反對它將造成的龐大債務。這似乎註定要重演1980年代關於美國的一項聯邦「產業政策」(將納稅人的錢直接投入到美國認為必須保持領先地位的技術中,從而創造競爭優勢)究竟是可行的,還是只是扼殺了矽谷創新的爭論。
拜登對美國在他接手的後冷戰、後川普時代面臨的鬥爭作出了令人深思的評估。
拜登對美國在他接手的後冷戰、後川普時代面臨的鬥爭作出了令人深思的評估。 Doug Mills/The New York Times
No matter how that plays out, Mr. Biden is casting the United States’ current competition in very different terms than his predecessors did. “Look, I predict to you,” he said, “your children or grandchildren are going to be doing their doctoral thesis on the issue of who succeeded: autocracy or democracy? Because that is what is at stake, not just China.”
無論如何,拜登正在用與前任截然不同的方式來描述美國當前面臨的競爭。「聽著,我向你們預言,」他說,「你們子女或孫輩的博士論文將會研究這個問題:究竟是誰成功了,專制還是民主?因為這才是關鍵所在,而不僅僅是中國。」
Most notable was what was missing. There was no talk of American “exceptionalism,” just a shorter-term assurance that “on my watch,” China would not reach its overall goal “to become the leading country in the world, the wealthiest country in the world, and the most powerful country in the world.”
最值得注意的是缺少了什麼。他沒有談論美國的「例外主義」,只是做出了短期保證,「在我任內」,中國不會實現「成為世界最領先的國家、世界最富有的國家和世界最強大的國家」這個總體目標。
廣告
Mr. Biden was also careful not to make Cold War analogies; in fact, he noted that what was missing now was much of an ideological contest. (“You don’t have Russia talking about Communism anymore,” he noted.) He has always said he would cooperate with adversaries, and on Friday he invited Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin to a virtual climate summit meeting he is hosting in April. He speaks of competition, not containment.
拜登還小心翼翼地避免與冷戰作類比;事實上,他指出,現在並不存在意識型態競賽。(「俄羅斯不再談論共產主義了,」他指出。)他一直說,他將與對手合作,週五,他邀請習近平和普丁參加他在4月主辦的虛擬氣候峰會。他說的是競爭,而不是遏制。
“I see stiff competition with China,” Mr. Biden said, over everything from chips to national values, which he added was the key to his two-hour conversation with Mr. Xi. And that, he said, meant pushing back on China’s stripping of rights in Hong Kong or on its harsh repression of Muslim minorities.
從晶片到國家的價值觀,拜登說,「我看到與中國的激烈競爭」。他還說,國家價值觀是他與習近平兩小時對話的重點。他說,這意味著要回擊中國在香港剝奪權利的做法或對穆斯林少數民族的嚴厲鎮壓。
“The moment a president walks away from that, as the last one did,” he said, taking a dig at former President Donald J. Trump, “is the moment we begin to lose our legitimacy around the world.”
「當一個總統像上任總統那樣放棄這件事的時候,」他挖苦前總統唐納德·J·川普(Donald J. Trump),「就是我們開始在世界各地失去合法性的時候。」
Still, Mr. Biden’s discussion of an open contest between two similarly sized superpowers was a significant change for American presidents.
不過,拜登討論兩個規模相似的超級大國之間的公開競爭,對美國總統來說是一個重大變化。
A quarter-century ago, President Bill Clinton would make the case — oftentimes, during visits to Beijing — that the arrival of the internet would force China to embrace an more American-style democracy. Clearly, that did not work out.
25年前,比爾·柯林頓(Bill Clinton)總統說(尤其在他訪問北京期間經常提起),互聯網的到來將迫使中國接受更多美式民主。顯然,這並沒有奏效。
President George W. Bush stressed areas where Chinese and American interests overlapped — counterterrorism and North Korea were the two he mentioned the most — but never cast China as a technological equal. Mr. Obama would always say the United States “welcomes the rise of China” and recognized that it could not contain the country if it wanted to, so it would be foolish to try.
喬治·W·布希(George W. Bush)總統強調中美利益重疊的領域(反恐和朝鮮是他提到最多的兩個領域),但從未將中國視為技術上平起平坐的國家。歐巴馬總是說,美國「歡迎中國的崛起」,並且承認,即使美國想遏制中國也無法做到,所以嘗試遏制中國是愚蠢的。
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And Mr. Trump spent three years imposing tariffs and insisting he would cut the deal of the century with China, and one year castigating it as the exporter of the coronavirus, while his secretary of state at the time, Mike Pompeo, insisted that over time, the Communist Party would collapse.
川普花了三年時間徵收關稅,堅稱他會與中國達成本世紀最重要的協議,還用了一年時間嚴厲指責中國是新冠病毒的輸出國,他當時的國務卿邁克·龐皮歐(Mike Pompeo)堅稱,隨著時間的推移,共產黨會垮台。
Now, Mr. Biden’s team says it is assembling a strategy built more around competition than containment.
現在,拜登的團隊表示,他們正在制定一項更多圍繞競爭而不是遏制的戰略。
“I don’t think China is on a mission to export its model abroad and undermine democracy abroad,” said Thomas J. Christensen, a Columbia professor and former State Department official dealing with China during the Bush administration. “But I do think they are on a mission to defend their model from criticism and defend single-party authoritarian rule.”
「我不認為中國的使命是向國外輸出它的模式,並破壞國外的民主,」哥倫比亞大學教授、布希政府時期負責中國事務的國務院前官員柯慶生(Thomas J. Christensen)說。「但我確實認為,他們的使命是捍衛他們的模式,使其免受批評,捍衛一黨專制統治。」
Mr. Christensen published an essay this week in Foreign Affairs titled, “There Will Not Be a New Cold War,” arguing that American allies were “too economically dependent on China to adopt entirely hostile policies,” and that the United States’ advantage was that it had allies and partners who ranked among the greatest technological powers in the world.
柯慶生本週在《外交事務》發表文章題為《不會有新冷戰》,認為美國的盟友「經濟上過於依賴中國,不可能採取完全敵對的政策」,美國的優勢在於,它的盟友和夥伴都是世界上最厲害的技術強國。
Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken seemed to acknowledge that this week when, on a visit to Brussels, he assured the Europeans that he would not force them to make an “us or them choice.”
美國國務卿安東尼·J·布林肯(Antony J. Blinken)本週訪問布魯塞爾時似乎承認了這一點。他向歐洲人保證,他不會強迫他們做出「我們還是他們的選擇」。
The Biden camp’s calculation seems to be that it is more important to hold allies together than to ensure that each one cuts off its dependency on Chinese technology or investment.
拜登陣營的盤算似乎是,把盟友團結在一起,比確保每個國家都擺脫對中國技術或投資的依賴更重要。
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The problem will come, as Mr. Blinken notes, as China’s lashes out at those who criticize its actions at home, in the South China Sea, or against Taiwan. “When one of us is coerced,” he said, “we should respond as allies and work together to reduce our vulnerability by ensuring our economies are more integrated with each other.” Which sounds a lot like creating opposing camps.
正如布林肯指出的,隨著中國猛烈抨擊那些批評其在國內、南海或台灣行為的人,問題將會出現。「當我們中的一個國家受到脅迫時,」他說,「我們應該以盟友的身份作出回應,通過確保我們的經濟更加緊密地結合在一起,共同努力減少我們的脆弱性。」這聽起來很像在創建對立陣營。